Head to Head

Updated May 14, 2026 from live stats

Michael Penix Jr. vs Trevor Lawrence

Fantasy Football Comparison for the 2026 NFL Season

The Bottom Line

Trevor Lawrence is the better fantasy play this season.

Trevor Lawrence is clearly the better fantasy option heading into 2026. With 19.9 PPG and 4,366 total yards in 2025, the production separation is too wide to overcome on matchup alone. Michael Penix Jr. (13.4 PPG) is a hold, not a sell, but roster Trevor Lawrence as the starter and Michael Penix Jr. as depth.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

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QBAtlanta Falcons#29

Michael Penix Jr.

PPG

13.4

Games

Pass Yds

1,982

Pass TDs

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 5

QBJacksonville Jaguars#5PPG LEADER

Trevor Lawrence

PPG

19.9

Games

Pass Yds

4,007

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

359

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 8

The Edge Chart

Michael Penix Jr.

Trevor Lawrence

Head to Head

13.4 PPG19.9 PPG

9 GP17 GP

Bye: Week 5Bye: Week 8

Fantasy Tiers

Michael Penix Jr.: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #29 at the position). Trevor Lawrence: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #5 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Michael Penix Jr. is producing at 61% of elite pace and Trevor Lawrence at 90%. That ranking gap means Trevor Lawrence carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Michael Penix Jr. vs Trevor Lawrence: Who Should You Start?

The numbers tell a clear story here. Trevor Lawrence put up 19.9 fantasy points per game for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2025, while Michael Penix Jr. managed 13.4 across 9 games with the Atlanta Falcons. A 6.5-point weekly edge is substantial at the quarterback position.

A 6.5-PPG gap gives Trevor Lawrence the edge on paper, but paper does not account for Thursday night matchups, weather games, or a star defender returning from injury. The real question is not who was better in 2025, but who is the better start this specific week.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 1982 yards and 9 touchdowns, while Trevor Lawrence posted 4007 yards and 29 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Michael Penix Jr. sits Week 5 while Trevor Lawrence is off Week 8. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

If you can acquire Trevor Lawrence at a discount because your league-mates undervalue quarterback production, do it. Michael Penix Jr. is a reasonable sell-high candidate if his recent games have spiked above his season average. Dynasty outlook: Michael Penix Jr. (age 26) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Trevor Lawrence (age 26) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Trevor Lawrence outscored Michael Penix Jr. by a projected 110 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Trevor Lawrence played 17 games in 2025 compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 9. That durability gap means Trevor Lawrence contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Trevor Lawrence scored 38 total touchdowns in 2025 (2.2 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Trevor Lawrence added 359 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.

Detailed Stat Breakdown▾

StatJr.Lawrence

PPG (Half-PPR)13.419.9

Games Played917

Total Fantasy Pts (est.)121338

Passing Yards1,9824,007

Passing TDs929

Pass Yds/Game220.2235.7

Rushing Yards70359

Rushing TDs19

Total TDs1038

TDs/Game1.12.2

Age2626

Experience1 yrs4 yrs

Bye WeekWeek 5Week 8

Summary

Trevor Lawrence outscored Michael Penix Jr. by 6.5 PPG in 2025 (19.9 to 13.4). That production gap is the baseline, but weekly context shifts the answer. DraftCall analyzes matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and health data to deliver a clear start or sit recommendation backed by real reasoning.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Michael Penix Jr. or Trevor Lawrence in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Trevor Lawrence has the edge at 19.9 PPG compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Michael Penix Jr. and Trevor Lawrence average in 2025?▾

Michael Penix Jr. averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 9 games in 2025. Trevor Lawrence averaged 19.9 PPG over 17 games. That is a difference of 6.5 points per game.

When are Michael Penix Jr. and Trevor Lawrence's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) has a bye in Week 5, and Trevor Lawrence (JAX) has a bye in Week 8. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Michael Penix Jr. or Trevor Lawrence a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Trevor Lawrence outscored Michael Penix Jr. by 6.5 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.