Head to Head

Updated May 14, 2026 from live stats

Michael Penix Jr. vs Patrick Mahomes

Fantasy Football Comparison for the 2026 NFL Season

The Bottom Line

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy play this season.

The gap here is significant. Patrick Mahomes outscored Michael Penix Jr. by 7.0 PPG in 2025 with 27 total touchdowns. If both are on your board, Patrick Mahomes is the clear pick. Michael Penix Jr. profiles as a matchup-dependent quarterback who can spike but lacks the consistent floor.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

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QBAtlanta Falcons#29

Michael Penix Jr.

PPG

13.4

Games

Pass Yds

1,982

Pass TDs

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 5

QBKansas City Chiefs#4PPG LEADER

Patrick Mahomes

PPG

20.4

Games

Pass Yds

3,587

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

422

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 10

The Edge Chart

Michael Penix Jr.

Patrick Mahomes

Head to Head

13.4 PPG20.4 PPG

9 GP14 GP

Bye: Week 5Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Tiers

Michael Penix Jr.: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #29 at the position). Patrick Mahomes: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #4 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Michael Penix Jr. is producing at 61% of elite pace and Patrick Mahomes at 93%. That ranking gap means Patrick Mahomes carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Michael Penix Jr. vs Patrick Mahomes: Who Should You Start?

The numbers tell a clear story here. Patrick Mahomes put up 20.4 fantasy points per game for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2025, while Michael Penix Jr. managed 13.4 across 9 games with the Atlanta Falcons. A 7.0-point weekly edge is substantial at the quarterback position.

That 7.0-point weekly advantage for Patrick Mahomes is meaningful but not automatic. Fantasy football is a week-to-week sport, and the answer to "who should I start" often changes based on opponent, recent form, and game environment. Season averages set the baseline; weekly context makes the call.

Patrick Mahomes offers meaningful rushing upside with 422 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like Michael Penix Jr. (1982 passing yards, 9 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Michael Penix Jr. sits Week 5 while Patrick Mahomes is off Week 10. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Patrick Mahomes is a buy in trades where the other manager is chasing upside at a different position. Michael Penix Jr. is a hold unless you can flip him for a positional upgrade elsewhere on your roster. Dynasty outlook: Michael Penix Jr. (age 26) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Patrick Mahomes (age 30) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Patrick Mahomes outscored Michael Penix Jr. by a projected 119 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Patrick Mahomes played 14 games in 2025 compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 9. That durability gap means Patrick Mahomes contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Patrick Mahomes scored 27 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.9 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Patrick Mahomes added 422 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.
•Michael Penix Jr. is 4 years younger than Patrick Mahomes (26 vs 30), which significantly impacts dynasty league trade value.

Detailed Stat Breakdown▾

StatJr.Mahomes

PPG (Half-PPR)13.420.4

Games Played914

Total Fantasy Pts (est.)121286

Passing Yards1,9823,587

Passing TDs922

Pass Yds/Game220.2256.2

Rushing Yards70422

Rushing TDs15

Total TDs1027

TDs/Game1.11.9

Age2630

Experience1 yrs8 yrs

Bye WeekWeek 5Week 10

Summary

The 2025 numbers favor Patrick Mahomes at 20.4 PPG, 7.0 points per game above Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4. But season stats only tell part of the story. DraftCall's AI factors in weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status to give you a verdict that updates with the latest data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Michael Penix Jr. or Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Patrick Mahomes has the edge at 20.4 PPG compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Michael Penix Jr. and Patrick Mahomes average in 2025?▾

Michael Penix Jr. averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 9 games in 2025. Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG over 14 games. That is a difference of 7.0 points per game.

When are Michael Penix Jr. and Patrick Mahomes's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) has a bye in Week 5, and Patrick Mahomes (KC) has a bye in Week 10. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Michael Penix Jr. or Patrick Mahomes a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Patrick Mahomes outscored Michael Penix Jr. by 7.0 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.