Head to Head

Updated May 14, 2026 from live stats

Aidan O'Connell vs Patrick Mahomes

Fantasy Football Comparison for the 2026 NFL Season

The Bottom Line

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy play this season.

Patrick Mahomes is clearly the better fantasy option heading into 2026. With 20.4 PPG and 3,999 total yards in 2025, the production separation is too wide to overcome on matchup alone. Aidan O'Connell (12.8 PPG) is a hold, not a sell, but roster Patrick Mahomes as the starter and Aidan O'Connell as depth.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

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QBLas Vegas Raiders#99

Aidan O'Connell

PPG

12.8

Games

Pass Yds

2,650

Pass TDs

Bye

Week 10

QBKansas City Chiefs#4PPG LEADER

Patrick Mahomes

PPG

20.4

Games

Pass Yds

3,587

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

422

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 10

The Edge Chart

Aidan O'Connell

Patrick Mahomes

Head to Head

12.8 PPG20.4 PPG

13 GP14 GP

Bye: Week 10Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Tiers

Aidan O'Connell: Tier 5 (Deep League) QB (ranked #99 at the position). Patrick Mahomes: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #4 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Aidan O'Connell is producing at 58% of elite pace and Patrick Mahomes at 93%. That ranking gap means Patrick Mahomes carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Aidan O'Connell vs Patrick Mahomes: Who Should You Start?

The numbers tell a clear story here. Patrick Mahomes put up 20.4 fantasy points per game for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2025, while Aidan O'Connell managed 12.8 across 13 games with the Las Vegas Raiders. A 7.6-point weekly edge is substantial at the quarterback position.

A 7.6-PPG gap gives Patrick Mahomes the edge on paper, but paper does not account for Thursday night matchups, weather games, or a star defender returning from injury. The real question is not who was better in 2025, but who is the better start this specific week.

Patrick Mahomes offers meaningful rushing upside with 422 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like Aidan O'Connell (2650 passing yards, 16 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

One thing to note: both players share a Week 10 bye. That means you need a backup plan at quarterback for that week, especially if one of these two is your starter.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

If you can acquire Patrick Mahomes at a discount because your league-mates undervalue quarterback production, do it. Aidan O'Connell is a reasonable sell-high candidate if his recent games have spiked above his season average. Dynasty outlook: Aidan O'Connell (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Patrick Mahomes (age 30) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Patrick Mahomes outscored Aidan O'Connell by a projected 129 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Patrick Mahomes played 14 games in 2025 compared to Aidan O'Connell's 13. That durability gap means Patrick Mahomes contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Patrick Mahomes scored 27 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.9 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Patrick Mahomes added 422 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.
•Both players share a Week 10 bye. If you roster both, you will need a replacement at the position that week.

Detailed Stat Breakdown▾

StatO'ConnellMahomes

PPG (Half-PPR)12.820.4

Games Played1314

Total Fantasy Pts (est.)166286

Passing Yards2,6503,587

Passing TDs1622

Pass Yds/Game203.8256.2

Rushing Yards68422

Rushing TDs05

Total TDs1627

TDs/Game1.21.9

Age-30

Experience-8 yrs

Bye WeekWeek 10Week 10

Summary

Patrick Mahomes outscored Aidan O'Connell by 7.6 PPG in 2025 (20.4 to 12.8). That production gap is the baseline, but weekly context shifts the answer. DraftCall analyzes matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and health data to deliver a clear start or sit recommendation backed by real reasoning.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Aidan O'Connell or Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Patrick Mahomes has the edge at 20.4 PPG compared to Aidan O'Connell's 12.8 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Aidan O'Connell and Patrick Mahomes average in 2025?▾

Aidan O'Connell averaged 12.8 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 13 games in 2025. Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG over 14 games. That is a difference of 7.6 points per game.

Do Aidan O'Connell and Patrick Mahomes share a bye week?▾

Yes, both Aidan O'Connell and Patrick Mahomes share a Week 10 bye in 2026. If you roster both, you will need a fill-in at quarterback for that week.

Is Aidan O'Connell or Patrick Mahomes a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Patrick Mahomes outscored Aidan O'Connell by 7.6 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.