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Head to Head

Updated May 14, 2026 from live stats

Patrick Mahomes vs Trevor Lawrence

Fantasy Football Comparison for the 2026 NFL Season

The Bottom Line

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy play this season.

Statistically, Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence are interchangeable on a season-long basis. The 0.5-PPG gap is one broken play per game. For weekly start/sit calls, check opponent defense and recent form before defaulting to the name.

Low confidence: the production gap is narrow enough that weekly context matters more than the season line.

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QBKansas City Chiefs#4PPG LEADER
Patrick Mahomes
PPG
20.4
Games
14
Pass Yds
3,587
Pass TDs
22
Rush Yds
422
Rush TDs
5
Bye
Week 10
QBJacksonville Jaguars#5
Trevor Lawrence
PPG
19.9
Games
17
Pass Yds
4,007
Pass TDs
29
Rush Yds
359
Rush TDs
9
Bye
Week 8

The Edge Chart

VolumeEfficiencyTD UpsideFloorCeilingDurability
Patrick Mahomes
Trevor Lawrence

Head to Head

20.4 PPG19.9 PPG
14 GP17 GP
Bye: Week 10Bye: Week 8

Fantasy Tiers

Patrick Mahomes: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #4 at the position). Trevor Lawrence: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #5 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Patrick Mahomes is producing at 93% of elite pace and Trevor Lawrence at 90%. These two are close enough in the rankings that weekly matchup should dictate your start.

Patrick Mahomes vs Trevor Lawrence: Who Should You Start?

The gap between Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence is smaller than most fantasy managers think. Separated by just 0.5 PPG in 2025, this is one of those quarterback decisions that comes down to context, not name recognition. Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG with the Kansas City Chiefs across 14 games, and Trevor Lawrence posted 19.9 with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 17.

When two quarterbacks are separated by less than two points per game, the decision shifts to weekly context. Who has the softer defense? Who is trending up over the last month? Which team is projected for more total points? Those are the tiebreakers that actually matter.

Patrick Mahomes offers meaningful rushing upside with 422 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like Trevor Lawrence (4007 passing yards, 29 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

Patrick Mahomes has his bye in Week 10, and Trevor Lawrence rests in Week 8. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at quarterback for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Patrick Mahomes (age 30) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Trevor Lawrence (age 26) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

  • Patrick Mahomes outscored Trevor Lawrence by a projected 9 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
  • Trevor Lawrence played 17 games in 2025 compared to Patrick Mahomes's 14. That durability gap means Trevor Lawrence contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
  • Trevor Lawrence scored 38 total touchdowns in 2025 (2.2 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
  • Patrick Mahomes added 422 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.
  • Trevor Lawrence is 4 years younger than Patrick Mahomes (26 vs 30), which significantly impacts dynasty league trade value.
Detailed Stat Breakdown
StatMahomesLawrence
PPG (Half-PPR)20.419.9
Games Played1417
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)286338
Passing Yards3,5874,007
Passing TDs2229
Pass Yds/Game256.2235.7
Rushing Yards422359
Rushing TDs59
Total TDs2738
TDs/Game1.92.2
Age3026
Experience8 yrs4 yrs
Bye WeekWeek 10Week 8

Summary

20.4 PPG for Patrick Mahomes versus 19.9 for Trevor Lawrence in 2025. The baseline favors Patrick Mahomes, though the right weekly matchup can flip the script. For a full breakdown that weighs matchup quality, form, and injury reports, try DraftCall's AI comparison engine.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence in fantasy football?

Based on 2025 season averages, Patrick Mahomes has the edge at 20.4 PPG compared to Trevor Lawrence's 19.9 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence average in 2025?

Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 14 games in 2025. Trevor Lawrence averaged 19.9 PPG over 17 games. That is a difference of 0.5 points per game.

When are Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence's bye weeks in 2026?

Patrick Mahomes (KC) has a bye in Week 10, and Trevor Lawrence (JAX) has a bye in Week 8. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?

Patrick Mahomes outscored Trevor Lawrence by 0.5 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.