Head to Head

Updated May 14, 2026 from live stats

Geno Smith vs Patrick Mahomes

Fantasy Football Comparison for the 2026 NFL Season

The Bottom Line

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy play this season.

Patrick Mahomes is clearly the better fantasy option heading into 2026. With 20.4 PPG and 3,999 total yards in 2025, the production separation is too wide to overcome on matchup alone. Geno Smith (11.6 PPG) is a hold, not a sell, but roster Patrick Mahomes as the starter and Geno Smith as depth.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

Want this verdict updated live on Sunday?

The DraftCall app pushes alerts the moment Geno Smith or Patrick Mahomes's status changes. Free.

Get the App

QBLas Vegas Raiders#34

Geno Smith

PPG

11.6

Games

Pass Yds

3,025

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

109

Bye

Week 8

QBKansas City Chiefs#4PPG LEADER

Patrick Mahomes

PPG

20.4

Games

Pass Yds

3,587

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

422

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 10

The Edge Chart

Geno Smith

Patrick Mahomes

Head to Head

11.6 PPG20.4 PPG

15 GP14 GP

Bye: Week 8Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Tiers

Geno Smith: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #34 at the position). Patrick Mahomes: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #4 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Geno Smith is producing at 53% of elite pace and Patrick Mahomes at 93%. That ranking gap means Patrick Mahomes carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Geno Smith vs Patrick Mahomes: Who Should You Start?

There is a real production gap between these two quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) averaged 20.4 PPG over 14 games in 2025, outscoring Geno Smith (Las Vegas Raiders, 11.6 PPG) by 8.8 points per week. That separation would need a significant matchup swing to overcome.

A 8.8-PPG gap gives Patrick Mahomes the edge on paper, but paper does not account for Thursday night matchups, weather games, or a star defender returning from injury. The real question is not who was better in 2025, but who is the better start this specific week.

Patrick Mahomes offers meaningful rushing upside with 422 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like Geno Smith (3025 passing yards, 19 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

One scheduling note: Geno Smith is off Week 8 and Patrick Mahomes Week 10. If these two are on your roster, you will need a fill-in quarterback for both weeks. DraftCall flags bye conflicts so you can plan ahead rather than panic on waivers.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

If you can acquire Patrick Mahomes at a discount because your league-mates undervalue quarterback production, do it. Geno Smith is a reasonable sell-high candidate if his recent games have spiked above his season average. Dynasty outlook: Geno Smith (age 35) is on the back end of his prime. Strong now, but dynasty value declines year over year. Patrick Mahomes (age 30) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Patrick Mahomes outscored Geno Smith by a projected 150 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Geno Smith played 15 games in 2025 compared to Patrick Mahomes's 14. That durability gap means Geno Smith contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Patrick Mahomes scored 27 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.9 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Patrick Mahomes added 422 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.
•Patrick Mahomes is 5 years younger than Geno Smith (30 vs 35), which significantly impacts dynasty league trade value.

Detailed Stat Breakdown▾

StatSmithMahomes

PPG (Half-PPR)11.620.4

Games Played1514

Total Fantasy Pts (est.)174286

Passing Yards3,0253,587

Passing TDs1922

Pass Yds/Game201.7256.2

Rushing Yards109422

Rushing TDs05

Total TDs1927

TDs/Game1.31.9

Age3530

Experience12 yrs8 yrs

Bye WeekWeek 8Week 10

Summary

Patrick Mahomes outscored Geno Smith by 8.8 PPG in 2025 (20.4 to 11.6). That production gap is the baseline, but weekly context shifts the answer. DraftCall analyzes matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and health data to deliver a clear start or sit recommendation backed by real reasoning.

Website vs App

Get the AI verdict on Geno Smith vs Patrick Mahomes

DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality, recent trends, injury impact, and game script to give you a clear start/sit recommendation.

See everything in the app →

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Geno Smith or Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Patrick Mahomes has the edge at 20.4 PPG compared to Geno Smith's 11.6 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Geno Smith and Patrick Mahomes average in 2025?▾

Geno Smith averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 15 games in 2025. Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG over 14 games. That is a difference of 8.8 points per game.

When are Geno Smith and Patrick Mahomes's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Geno Smith (LV) has a bye in Week 8, and Patrick Mahomes (KC) has a bye in Week 10. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Geno Smith or Patrick Mahomes a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Patrick Mahomes outscored Geno Smith by 8.8 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.