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Head to Head

Updated from live stats

Caleb Williams or Geno SmithWho should you draft or start in 2026 fantasy football?

DraftCall Analytics

Start Caleb Williams over Geno Smith in 2026.

Caleb Williams averaged 18.7 PPG in 2025 to Geno Smith's 11.6, a 7.1 point per game edge. Both play quarterbacks, so that per-game gap is the cleanest tiebreaker for a 2026 start or sit. Caleb Williams is Tier 2 at the position, Geno Smith is Tier 7.

The Bottom Line

The gap here is significant. Caleb Williams outscored Geno Smith by 7.1 PPG in 2025 with 31 total touchdowns. If both are on your board, Caleb Williams is the clear pick. Geno Smith profiles as a matchup-dependent quarterback who can spike but lacks the consistent floor.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

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QBChicago Bears#8PPG LEADER
Caleb Williams
PPG
18.7
Games
17
Pass Yds
3,942
Pass TDs
27
Rush Yds
388
Rush TDs
3
Bye
Week 10
QBLas Vegas Raiders#34
Geno Smith
PPG
11.6
Games
15
Pass Yds
3,025
Pass TDs
19
Rush Yds
109
Bye
Week 13

The Edge Chart

VolumeEfficiencyTD UpsideFloorCeilingDurability
Caleb Williams
Geno Smith

Head to Head

18.7 PPG11.6 PPG
17 GP15 GP
Bye: Week 10Bye: Week 13

Fantasy Tiers

Caleb Williams: Tier 2 (Strong Starter) QB (ranked #8 at the position). Geno Smith: Tier 7 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #34 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Caleb Williams is producing at 85% of elite pace and Geno Smith at 53%. That ranking gap means Caleb Williams carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Caleb Williams vs Geno Smith: The Full Breakdown

Caleb Williams and Geno Smith are at different tiers heading into 2026. The Chicago Bears quarterback averaged 18.7 PPG in 2025, a full 7.1 points per game ahead of Geno Smith's 11.6 with the Las Vegas Raiders. That kind of gap doesn't close on matchup alone.

That 7.1-point weekly advantage for Caleb Williams is meaningful but not automatic. Fantasy football is a week-to-week sport, and the answer to "who should I start" often changes based on opponent, recent form, and game environment. Season averages set the baseline; weekly context makes the call.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Caleb Williams threw for 3942 yards and 27 touchdowns, while Geno Smith posted 3025 yards and 19 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Caleb Williams has his bye in Week 10, and Geno Smith rests in Week 13. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at quarterback for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Caleb Williams is a buy in trades where the other manager is chasing upside at a different position. Geno Smith is a hold unless you can flip him for a positional upgrade elsewhere on your roster. Dynasty outlook: Caleb Williams (age 24) is in the early stages of his career with 5+ years of starter-caliber upside. His dynasty value is rising. Geno Smith (age 35) is on the back end of his prime. Strong now, but dynasty value declines year over year.

Did You Know?

  • Caleb Williams outscored Geno Smith by a projected 121 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
  • Caleb Williams played 17 games in 2025 compared to Geno Smith's 15. That durability gap means Caleb Williams contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
  • Caleb Williams scored 31 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.8 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
  • Caleb Williams added 388 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.
  • Caleb Williams is 11 years younger than Geno Smith (24 vs 35), which significantly impacts dynasty league trade value.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Caleb Williams vs Geno Smith: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
StatCaleb WilliamsGeno Smith
PPG (Half-PPR)18.711.6
Games Played1715
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)318174
Passing Yards3,9423,025
Passing TDs2719
Pass Yds/Game231.9201.7
Rushing Yards388109
Rushing TDs30
Total TDs3119
TDs/Game1.81.3
Age2435
Experience1 yrs12 yrs
Bye WeekWeek 10Week 13

Summary

The 2025 numbers favor Caleb Williams at 18.7 PPG, 7.1 points per game above Geno Smith's 11.6. But season stats only tell part of the story. DraftCall's AI factors in weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status to give you a verdict that updates with the latest data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Caleb Williams or Geno Smith in fantasy football?

Based on 2025 season averages, Caleb Williams has the edge at 18.7 PPG compared to Geno Smith's 11.6 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

Should I draft Caleb Williams or Geno Smith in 2026 fantasy football?

Caleb Williams is the earlier pick. He averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game in 2025 to Geno Smith's 11.6, a 7.1 point per game edge over a full season. Positional rank, fantasy tier, and bye week are broken down below.

How many fantasy points did Caleb Williams and Geno Smith average in 2025?

Caleb Williams averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 17 games in 2025. Geno Smith averaged 11.6 PPG over 15 games. That is a difference of 7.1 points per game.

When are Caleb Williams and Geno Smith's bye weeks in 2026?

Caleb Williams (CHI) has a bye in Week 10, and Geno Smith (LV) has a bye in Week 13. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Caleb Williams or Geno Smith a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?

Caleb Williams outscored Geno Smith by 7.1 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.